It Collapsed Overnight — The Lie of a Single Line of Code
A strategy I'd spent months building turned out to be standing on a single line of backtest code. Where the illusion broke, I get back up — this time on real numbers.
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A strategy I'd spent months building turned out to be standing on a single line of backtest code. Where the illusion broke, I get back up — this time on real numbers.
The equity curve that actually played out once is only one of countless histories that could have happened. Using a 12-day example, I explain the 'block bootstrap'—a way to strip out the luck of sequence and see the real risk.
Before turning up the leverage, I ran the data to ask whether my portfolio's returns were just a bull-market tailwind, and whether the alpha was quietly decaying.